SPX has an expected move of about 224 points heading into the week of March 9. This is one of the largest expected moves we have seen in a very long time. We would have to go to last fall to see a number this big. It is by far the largest expected move of 2026 so far.

The theme of 2026 has been volatility expansion. Implied volatility has been quietly rising all year, even when SPX was making new all-time highs. Generally, markets pushing higher see a lower IV and VIX also trending lower. That has not been the case so far this year.

Last week, we also saw realized volatility begin to catch up to implied volatility. We have had a 100+ point expected move for several weeks in a row, but the realized moves were much more muted on a weekly closing basis. There were weeks with 100+ point expected moves, but SPX net change was only about 20-30 points. Last week, we saw SPX close at the lower end of the expected move, almost moving the full length of the expected move.

Now that realized volatility has caught up, we could see this type of price action last for a few weeks.

The upper end of the expected move for next week is around 6964. Even with the largest expected move of the year, we are still shy of 7000. I think that speaks volumes and shows the clear downward bias in the market currently.

The lower end of the expected move is around 6515, which aligns with the 11/21 low of 6521. This is going to be the most critical value to watch for next week if price gets that low.

The sheer magnitude of the expected move can be very clearly seen on the chart by how wide apart those yellow lines are this week. This is one of the biggest ranges we have seen in a very long time.

I think the alignment of the lower end being with the Nov 21 low also says a lot about how efficient algorithms are and how everyone is kind of watching the same levels.

In all honesty, there aren’t a lot of key levels between here and there. I think if the markets decide to sell off, we could see that number pretty quickly, and if we don’t, then a new key level will emerge.

To the upside, we do have some key levels. The first one most noticeably being 6780, followed by 6830. If SPX pushes higher, these will be the first 2 levels to watch.

VIX saw an incredible pop this week, going to some of the highest levels we have seen in nearly a year. The last time the VIX was over 30 was during the entire liberation day sell off. On Friday, VIX came just pennies shy of hitting 30.

If SPX continues the push lower, 30 should be no barrier for VIX and we might be talking about 40 or beyond. This is no surprise given the current implied volatility though.

2026 has been a great year for traders, with good two sided action. I think most traders love volatility, as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Regardless of where the market goes, I think it’s great to see VIX at 30 and SPX moving 200 points every week.

Now is not the time to be a bull or a bear, but it’s time to be a trader. There are opportunities to make good trades on both sides. The larger trend might be pointing downward, but high volatility means the up moves are just as swift.

Q1 is winding down in a couple of weeks. Are the bears going to win this one?

Good luck!