SPX has an expected move of about 114 points heading into the final week of May 2026. As we wind down yet another month, I think May will be remembered as another incredibly bullish month. There were a lot of milestones hit this month, including 7300, 7400 and 7500 all for the first time ever.

We end the month with a shortened week, yet the expected move still stays around the same level it has been. Implied volatility is actually higher this week than last week, even though last week was a full trading week with NVDA earnings.

The upper end of the expected move sits around 7588, just shy of the 7600 milestone. Meanwhile, the lower end of the expected move sits around 7358, just slightly above the lows of last week.

There is a clear upside bias to this week, with the lower end of the expected move sitting above the lows last week. The upside bias should not be a surprise given the shortened week though.

Generally, shortened weeks / holiday times tend to have a quiet upside in the market. This is especially true for the summer months.

7500 and 7390 will be the first key levels to watch for as the week kicks off.

To note, VIX is also now beginning to head back down to pre-war levels. VIX remained elevated for most of this historic run up, but we are now finally starting to see it trending down.

Short term implied volatility might be on the rise, but VIX had a steady decline this week.

It should be a quiet, low volume week where the market drifts higher. I think ‘buy the dip’ is going to be the go-to strategy this week. I expect most dips to buy bought up pretty quickly.

I will be out of town this week so there likely won’t be any posts until next weekend.

Good luck on the shortened week!