SPX has an expected move of about 101 points to kick off the month of June 2026. May was largely a continuation of April, with historic upside moves in both SPX and NDX. We continued to make new all-time highs almost every single week of the month, and broke through a lot of key milestones along the way.

Last week we saw SPX tag 7599, coming just a few pennies shy of 7600. In 2 months, SPX has now rallied about 1300 points, making it one of the fastest and most aggressive up moves in history.

Aggressive buying pretty much summarizes the last 8-9 weeks. As we head into the summer months, I expect more of the same. Generally, the summer has lower volume and lower volume means a quiet upside drift in the market.

The upper end of the expected move sits around 7682, just shy of the 7700 mark. Is June going to kick off with a bang and get us to this milestone?

The lower end of the expected move comes in around 7478. The 7500 area should be a point of support for the time being and an area where we could potentially bounce from.

VIX is now well below the pre-war levels, heading close to the sub 15 mark. Breaking below this would be a huge psychological victory and I think it is entirely possible if SPX pushes towards the upper end of the expected move this week.

Volatility tends to die down in the summer months. As we head deeper into June and the summer holidays, we could see VIX trying to test that 52 week low or even break it.

A new month means new money and new opportunities in the market. The expectation for this coming week is a quiet upside drift in the market, likely on low volume and low volatility.

7600 will be the first upside key level to watch. On the downside, there really isn’t much. I think 7550 comes into play first as a potential “dip” buying opportunity.

Good luck!