SPX has an expected move of 81 points heading into the week of January 19. This is a shortened week with a holiday on Monday. The expected move has hovered around the 80 mark for a few weeks in a row now.

SPX has been largely ranged bound in 2026 so far, with good two sided price action. While we are still hovering around new all-time highs, there has been a lack of momentum to the upside. Lately the price action has been mostly a grind higher, but SPX has been unable to cross the 7000 barrier.

As we head into next week, the upper end of the expected move is once again north of 7000, coming in at 7021. The lower end of the expected move is at 6858, slightly below the key level of 6880.

SPX actually had 4 red candles in a row last week, though it certainly did not feel that way. For the week, SPX was only down about 26 points.

As mentioned before, SPX has been caught in a narrow range for most of 2026 so far. The majority of the price action has taken place in the grey box highlighted below, roughly between 6890 and 6970. While there have been a few breaches from outside of this range, price has quickly snapped back into it. Momentum outside of this range has not been able to sustain.

Heading into next week, 6860 will be the first key level to watch for. This closely aligns with the lower end of the expected move. Beyond that, 6825 is the 2026 low so far, and this level will be significant. To the upside, 6970 is the first key level to the upside.

One thing I have repeatedly said over the past few weeks is to closely watch the VIX. Throughout 2026 so far, VIX has been steadily climbing with SPX. There have been multiple days in the past few weeks where both SPX and VIX are green, including days where SPX was testing new all-time highs.

I have mentioned that when we see behavior like this from the VIX, a sharp correction is generally around the corner. It doesn’t need to be a large one or even a long one, but we could see a swift sell off ranging from 3-5% given this price action in VIX.

The cycle is coming back towards geopolitics being in the forefront again. We’ve seen the cycle before and generally buy the dip has always won. We could see a sharp drop early next week based on how futures are trading this Sunday evening, but let’s not forget that there is an entire day off tomorrow and could give time for a recovery.

Watch for the key levels as we kick off the week. Chances are SPX might open lower, but we’ll gauge things on how aggressive dip buyers are.

Good luck!