SPX broke below the lower end of the weekly expected move today, which we have been anticipating for a few days now. While this level did initially break in the morning and SPX saw a small sell off, price recovered back and SPX ended up closing green for the day – the first up day all week.

Most of the week has been a very orderly and slow move down, we’ve seen small bits of velocity here and there but overall it has been incredibly orderly and structured.

The daily chart reflects this in more detail, you can see how tucked in each candle has been this week. While the candle today was technically still red, it was an up day on SPX. Other than that, the trend this week has been clearly down with each day making a lower low compared to the last. However, none of the candles really stick out as significant. It’s been mostly a boring move.

The expected move has already been hit so the probability says we either stay around here to go a little higher tomorrow.

Friday’s are generally up days especially early in the month, and given how today recovered, I would expect that to continue tomorrow.

7635 will remain the key level to the downside followed by today’s low of 7616. To the upside we have 7700 and 7725.

Good luck!