SPX completely rejected the rally from late last week, falling back lower today and inching closer to the lower end of the expected move for the week. The theme lately has been that we see the expected move levels hit early in the week, and the rest of the week after that ends up being a reversal.

Last week, we saw SPX break out of the expected move on Monday and then spent a few days drifting back towards unchanged on the week. Weeks prior, we saw SPX hit the lower end of the expected move on Monday or Tuesday and then drift higher for the rest of the week.

Today, we missed the weekly expected move level to the downside by just about 30 points. As of the close, SPX is about 50 points from that level. This could very well happen tomorrow, and if it does, perhaps playing the reversal is the higher probability play.

The daily chart continues to chop around, with the candle today being almost a mirror opposite of the one from last Thursday or Friday. The overall trend from the last 5 candles seems to be downwards, however.

SPX has been largely unable to sustain a trend on the daily chart, so the word trend should be taken very lightly and with a grain of salty. Given the choppy price action, we could be right back up to 7740 tomorrow and it wouldn’t change anything on the daily chart.

7700 seems to be the equilibrium point. Outside of a huge spike down on FOMC day a few weeks ago, SPX has found the 7700 level to be a key magnet and most of the trade is occurring around this level. We have seen SPX coil at a level like this for weeks at a time before, and almost every single time for the past few years it has exploded to the upside.

We saw it early in the summer when 7450 was the magnet. SPX chopped there for a couple of months and then exploded higher. Regardless of direction, I think we can all agree that when we finally leave this magnet, the move is going to be fast and furious.

If you look at the chart throughout 2025, you will find other similar examples.

SPX coiling at a level just means accumulation. The distribution phase will come later. As a trader, the key will be the ride with the momentum when it appears.

7720 and 7660 will be the key gamma levels tomorrow as per our dashboard. They coincidentally happen to roughly align the high and low from today.

Today was only Monday but it was an exciting day with some good volatility. Let’s hope the rest of the week follows.

Good luck!