Another failed rally in SPX today, though this one did manage to push a little higher. SPX rallied all the way back to the 7750 key level, rejected it and then faded into the close, down about 36 points off the high.

The Nasdaq ended up closing red on the day, reflecting the continued weakness in tech.

For the week, SPX is up about 53 points which isn’t too bad considering the general weakness in the market. It’s been a slow drift higher on the daily chart despite the intraday rallies failing to sustain momentum. SPX is still trading inside of the range set on last Friday’s candle, which for right now is significant.

Has the daily chart stalled out to form a bear flag? There doesn’t seem to be a sharp V shaped rally right back to the top, similar to the other whipsaw moments we saw in September. For right now, SPX seems to be hanging around close to the most recent lows than the most recent highs.

Friday’s candle will be important as we continue to head deeper into earnings season. As of writing this post, it seems like SPCX might be saving the day but we’ll see if that holds overnight.

Zooming into the price action from the last few days, I have marked Friday’s high and low, which are the next immediate key levels. We seem far from the lower one at 7631, while the upper key level of 7757 was almost hit today.

Again, as of writing this post, SPX seems to be positioned to make a run for that upper level right at the open but anything can change overnight. The last few nights we have seen the overnight rally fade into the regular market open.

Keep an eye on /ES tonight.

Tomorrow we have TSLA, META and IBM – all 3 can really move the market. SPCX seems to be the saving grace right now, but I think the 3 tomorrow are more important overall especially for the AI trade.

I’ve also been talking lately about what happens if we get a 90% down day, meaning a day where 90% of the stocks in SPX are down. Would that cause a huge move down in the index itself?

Well, today we got an 80% up day, where 4 out of 5 stocks in SPX were higher.

And yet the index only closed up 21 points.

This is a serious issue and it will eventually catch up with the market.

Good luck!