The 10-year Treasury is paying more than 5%, the highest since 2007, while the S&P 500 sits about 1% below its record. Bonds say inflation is back and money is expensive. Stocks say earnings will make it not matter. This is my take on which one is wrong, and the one number that ties them together: the S&P’s earnings yield is now below what a 3-month T-bill pays.

I also argue against myself, because this warning has been early before.

Data through October 14, 2026: US Treasury daily yields, BLS CPI, Robert Shiller’s long-run S&P data (1871-2026), and SPY / QQQ / IWM / TLT daily closes (price only).