Friday ended on a bullish note, as it usually does. SPX rallied all the way back to the upper end of the expected move today, after being nearly unchanged for the week yesterday morning. SPX ended the week significantly higher but still within the expected move, despite the breach on Tuesday.

The week was volatile, as SPX moved the full standard deviation move throughout the week. Tuesday we broke the upper end, Thursday we were unchanged and Friday we tagged the upper end again.

The high today was exactly 7820, which was the upper end of the expected move. SPX essentially closed at this level too. The daily chart still looks choppy, with a lot of whipsaw price action. What began to look like a mini reversal middle of this week has been mostly invalidated with the bounce up today.

We are closing the week very close to the all-time highs set on Tuesday. Overall, the week was bullish even if there was a small reversal in the middle of it.

In terms of our grey box, SPX once again broke out of it and closed out of it. There has been multiple break outs this week as well as a couple of closes outside of it. The market is trying to tell us something with this repeated breaches.

If price continues to hover around here and tries to break free of this range, then we might be off to the races again.

One’s own personal bias will get in the way when observing a chart pattern like this. Some would argue that the repeated breaks means the market will eventually break free, while the bears may argue that 90% of all trade in the past 8-9 weeks has been inside of this box and the probability suggests we come back inside.

This week was a quiet one in terms of the economic calendar, but the same can’t be said for next week. Earnings season kicks off as well as some key economic data.

We should expect the big swings to continue as SPX tries to figure ou where it’s gonna go.

I will have more over the weekend as usual.

Stay tuned!