SPX just concluded one of most confusing rollercoaster weeks we have seen in a while. We saw a huge down move to the lower end of the expected move to start the week, pre-AVGO earnings. Then AVGO did nothing and actually broke down, but SPX rallied anyways and nearly tagged the upper end of the expected move. Then on a Friday before a long weekend, we saw no upside follow through and closed unchanged for the week.

A pretty wild ride with lots of fake outs in all direction. It was actually a difficult week to trade, but exciting to follow and try to chase. I hope we see more two sided action coming this month.

The daily chart is all over the place as well. SPX closed up only 7 points for the week, basically unchanged. It was starting to look like another V but today saw no follow through even though the set up was there. For the time being, we can assume that 7750 is a key level that will need to break before further upside.

Last Friday we closed at 7711, this Friday at 7718. Two weeks ago we were around 7680. It’s been a few weeks of very little movement on a week to week closing basis, but price has also been everywhere.

VIX hit nearly a 52 week low today and yet we are seeing some pretty crazy swings day to day in SPX. The biggest question is why are we seeing volatility suppression?

VIX hitting new lows for the calendar year in September is a pretty rare event. Something has to eventually give.

The expected move is looking nearly identical for next week, even with the shortened week. I’ll have more over the weekend as usual.

Have a great long weekend!

Stay tuned!