SPX was supposed to have a 111 point expected move for the week, and yet somehow we managed to move that just today. Needless to say, it was a pretty crazy start to the week. It’s only Monday and SPX is sitting right at the upper end of the expected move, and even briefly broke it earlier in the day.

So where do we go from here? We are just 1 day into the week and the entirety of the 1 standard deviation move is complete. Are we going for 2 or 3 standard deviations? It’s kind of crazy to think about, because 2 standard deviations would put SPX over 7700 while 3 would mean over 7800. It sounds ridiculous, but we just witnessed the ridiculous.

Over the weekend video, I spoke about how SPX had moved 200 points in 2 days and we’ve seen explosives moves like that before. The question coming into today was if this was one of those moments. So far the answer is yes and now SPX has moved 300 points in 3 days. Who has their money on 400 in 4?

The daily chart is vertical and there isn’t much to analyze beyond that. We have broken virtually every key level to the upside and some critical previous swing points. From the high of today, we were just 10 points away from a new all-time high.

Given the proximity to the high and the absolute undeniable upside momentum, I think it is safe to assume that new all-time highs should be hit tomorrow. At this rate, it would almost be comical if it didn’t happen. Nothing is guaranteed in life, but new all-time highs tomorrow is about as close as you can get.

Since the start of May, nearly 3 months ago now, 95% of all trades on SPX have been inside of that grey box. There have been some very brief breaches, none of which were able to sustain the breakout. Today, we broke out again. Is this time different?

It’s quite amusing how fast price snapped from one end to the other. This one might be the quickest. As I said earlier, it took just 3 days. The low on Wednesday at the close was 7313. The high today was 7610. 300 points in 3 days.

With the exception of AAPL, today was also a pretty broad buying event. In past weeks, I’ve spoken about the fracture in the market where some days you see chip/memory stocks rallying while MAG7 falls, or vice versa. The last few days, especially today, have seen a pretty universal rally. The end result is a 300 point bump in SPX.

This is the type of price action we were seeing in April/May. August has now kicked off in a similar way. Was today a statement day from the bulls that this month belongs to them?

A lot of questions today, to which I have no answer. Only time will tell what the market decides. For me personally, no matter how bullish or bearish I am, a 300 point move in 1 direction in just a couple of days is ridiculous. The trader in me wants to take the opposite side of the tape. Standing in front of a run away train is generally not advised, but I guess I’ll take my chances.

I’ll leave you with a quick chart on NQ, which is barely at the levels from over a week ago while SPX sits at new all-time highs. The market leader is severely lagging and is approaching a major trendline.

If NQ breaks out and explodes to the upside, then I think 7800 is coming very quickly on SPX. If NQ rejects, then we’re likely heading back down.

Good luck!