SPX has an expected move of about 121 points heading into the week of June 22. As we wrap up the last full week of June and head into the midway point of the year, implied volatility continues to be elevated and we are likely to see an entire quarter where the expected move has been over 100 points.

The expected move is lower than last week, especially when you factor in 4 vs 5 days, but it is still higher than the historical average. VIX may be under 17, but short term implied volatility has not given up.

The upper end of the expected move sits around 7621, just 1 point higher than the current all-time high. The market is pricing in a possible retest of this level. Do we head for the double top or is it time for a breakout and push higher?

Meanwhile, the lower end of the expected move is around 7379. This is just slightly lower than the lows from Wednesday, and just below the 7400 key level. For the time being, I think the market expects the lows from last week to hold.

I would say given the range and expected levels, the market is pricing in a fair neutral week. At the very least, blowing off to new highs is not being priced in nor are we pricing in a complete collapse below the lows of last week.

We are officially in the summertime now and I think there should be a quiet upside bias for the next few weeks. We are still in the middle of geopolitical tensions however, so we could see random outbursts of volatility.

I’ll share a chart of the VIX for old times sake, but I think VIX has been largely irrelevant the past few weeks. Short term weekly implied volatility continues to hang around the 20 level, but we know the VIX measures 30 day volatility and it’s been significantly lower.

The 16-18 level seems to be the long term magnet. We rejected breaking out above 23 a couple of weeks ago when we saw NQ selling off. For the most part, I think people are still hanging onto the hope that there will be a deal with Iran and the rally will be back fulltime.

We’ve seen some big swings in the Nasdaq lately and I think that will continue as we continue to add new trillion dollar market caps. SPX seems to be stuck in the mud comparatively.

Micron has earnings this week and it has now become a major player in the market, and a serious market mover. I think all eyes will be on MU for the first half of the week.

As we head into tomorrow, keep an eye on 7530 and 7470. These will be the first two key levels.

Good luck!