SPX has an expected move of about 129 points heading into the final week of April 2026. The expected move has ticked up a little bit compared to last week, but that makes sense given all the earnings this week, as well as FOMC on Wednesday. Most of Mag 7 is reporting this week along with a lot of other high flying, high beta stocks.

The upside momentum continued to be strong this week, especially in the Nasdaq. We have seen NDX break the expected move 4 weeks in a row now, leaving SPX behind in the dust.

The upper end of the expected move sits around 7294, just shy of the key psychological level of 7300. Given all the big tech earnings this week, it’s very much possible we could tag that level. The lower end of the expected move sits around 7035, just slightly lower than Thursday’s low. That says a lot about the upside bias in this market. The expected low is only taking us back to Thursday, but the expected high takes us to nearly 7300.

The bull flag on the daily chart continues to play out, and we’ll see if this breakout has any follow through as the new week kicks off. The expectation is that this pattern holds and SPX continues to push higher.

VIX continues to stay afloat in the high teens, but I suppose that is expected given the types of moves that we are having, and the lingering risk of a tweet hitting the market at any given moment.

The 17 level continues to be important, but if SPX really pushes the upper bounds this week, we could see VIX finally come back into its more “normal” range. For now, I don’t think VIX is as good of an indicator as it was in March.

April has been one of the most bullish months we have seen in a very long time. From the lows on March 30, we have seen Nasdaq really nearly 20% and SPX about 15%. This is an incredible rally for just 4 weeks. It’s truly historic.

As we wind the month down, I don’t expect those gains to be erased. I think at worst, we probably finish around here. The likely theory is that SPX pushes past 7200 this week on the back of good earnings and a dovish FOMC. It’s JPow’s last meeting as Chair, and I doubt he says anything to spook the markets.

It should be another fun week!

Good luck!