SPX continued the trend of having nearly 2% swings intra-day once again. SPX saw a range of about 118 points today. The volatility continues and the expectation is that it stays elevated. There is still some major economic data due later this week as well as AVGO earnings.

SPX found its way back inside of the expected range today as well, after spending most of yesterday below it. SPX also nearly touched the 200-day moving average again today but bounced back. So far it is playing out as a key support level.

The expectation was that a rally would be healthy and a sustained rally was much needed for the market. SPX did not see a major sell off from the highs today and closed near the highs as well.

The hourly chart still shows a bearish pattern and downside pressure. One of the more bearish parts of today was that we did not break over the high from yesterday, which was a key reversal point for the market yesterday when it sold off hard into the close. On the flip side, the bullish case is that we did not make a new low despite testing that range today.

The market is stuck in a critical range right now between 5732 and 5865. The level that gets broken first is likely the direction that will follow for the short run.

Seeing a break and close above 5865 on the hourly chart could send us back towards the mid-point of the expected range at 5954. The key levels to watch for tomorrow are 5865 and 5900. Either of these could be a point of reversal, but breaking over them will be bullish for the short term. On the downside its 5732.

NVDA largely did nothing today despite the recovery in SPX and NDX. This is definitely bearish for NVDA as it was also unable to break the highs from yesterday. NVDA needs to retake 120 for a bullish scenario to play out, otherwise there will be sustained downside pressure.

We have not talked about AAPL in a few days, but the last update for AAPL mentioned 230 being a key level that was expected to hold if AAPL got down there.

The low today was 229.23 and we can see the red line holding. The only candle to breach it has a long wick at the bottom followed by a rally, which signifies that the support level was held. AAPL could be headed back towards 243.

VIX spiked back towards 25 again today but collapsed into the close. VIX has been slowly rising and we have seen the impact of that in the huge intra-day swings in the SPX. While VIX may continue to collapse, I don’t expect it to get into the grey box any time soon.

TSLA also failed to have a huge rally today despite many of the MAG 7 seeing big moves. TSLA has been in a huge bearish formation for a while and I expect that trend to continue. Any rally is simply a dead cat bounce. We could easily make our way back to 300 or even 320, but I do not expect any up move to sustain long term.

The likelihood is TSLA continues to collapse long term.

The broader market sustaining the up move today gives more traction to a possible rally up coming. However, there is still some key economic data and earnings this week and things could change very quickly.

Overall, the trend is still bearish but that does not mean SPX goes down in a straight line. Small recovery rallies along the way is healthy price action. The expectation for the bullish scenario is that we should see at least 5900 before the week ends. If that fails to happen, then it is possible the rally is over and we will head back down.

Watch for the key levels I mentioned, as those could be points of either key reversals or momentum picking up. Trade the price action and the trend.

Good luck!