SPX broke over 6123, which was the expectation coming into today. However, we came just within 1 point of making a new all-time high on SPX but failed to do so. While I wouldn’t call the price action today a rejection, we certainly did fade away from that level and closed unchanged/slightly red on the day.

To note, SPY did make a new high today by just about 20 cents or so. /ES did not. There is some slight divergence between the S&P 500 products.

Our daily chart shows us closing just barely below the upper end of the expected range. However, that candle we formed today is very interesting. Seeing a doji at the top of the trend like this could be interpreted as bearish, but I will hold off on that judgement for now.

SPX did rally to the expected levels this week and we broke over 6123, tested the new all-time high and closed near the upper end of the expected range. On paper, this should be seen as bullish. Yes, we did fade away at the end and closed slightly red, but we did not see a hard and fast rejection from the all-time high level.

I want to zoom into the minutely chart for the last 2 days and really focus on the price action. We see a strong rally on Thursday and early Friday, then we slowly fade back from the highs. To me it looks more like a flagging pattern than a rejection like we have seen earlier in the week from key levels.

Zooming out just a little to the 15-minute chart, we can see a more clearer bull flag pattern. The price action doesn’t really look bearish, but instead it looks like SPX is taking a breather before the next leg up.

If you recall, we saw a very similar pattern in NVDA earlier this week before it eventually broke out as well. Can we expect the same from SPX?

Speaking of NVDA, we can safely call this one of the market leaders once more. NVDA is back and stronger than ever.

The expectation I had set for NVDA coming into today was 140 and we saw 139.25. I’ll call that a win for the NVDA bulls. We are strongly trending up in a sea of green candles. However, NVDA is running into its next big test. The red line right above the current price is the gap close from the deepseek sell off. NVDA was already starting to fade into this level before the deepseek gap down. Is this where NVDA runs out of steam?

The gap fill sits right around 142 and if we break that level, I am expecting 150. NVDA has earnings in a couple of weeks so this week could be a huge run up for NVDA. If we reject 142, it’ll be interesting to see if the current grey box can hold.

Moving onto AAPL, it looks like AAPL wants 247. This was the gap up from earnings a few weeks ago that turned into another sharp sell off. AAPL has been recovering and has completely rejected the head and shoulders pattern we were tracking.

With AAPL and NVDA potentially breaking out to the upside, can we really expect weakness in the SPX? I don’t see a world where the 2 biggest market caps are giving bullish signs and might rally, but the SPX doesn’t. This is just something to keep in mind.

On a day where SPX and NDX were testing new all-time highs, GOOGL still closed red. While it is on the upper side of the level it has been hanging onto, it still cannot find itself too far away from it. To me, GOOGL is still hanging on for dear life.

Will the bulls pour into GOOGL as well?

TSLA rejected 360 once again today. We saw a gap open up to that level and then spent the rest of the day fading and falling back down.

We are still in a bearish pattern for TSLA, and the expectation still remains that 360 will keep rejecting and the low 300s price target is coming soon.

I just want to quickly show a daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 as well. NDX did make a new all-time high today, even though SPX did not.

Also to note, this new all-time high on NDX comes on a day where MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, AVGO and TSLA were red. These are all trillion-dollar market caps that the NDX did not care about today. If any of these turn around and join the rally, NDX could push even higher.

We have yet another shortened week coming up, but volatility still seems elevated. We will explore this more over the weekend and our weekly updates.

Stay tuned!