Yesterday I mentioned 6042 being the level to watch for on SPX. Today we broke over that level with some momentum and spent most of the day rallying. For the time being, this is a bullish signal for as long as we remain above 6042.

Starting with the usual daily chart, it is clear now that SPX has broken into the upper half of the expected range, something that it failed to do last week. The recovery from Monday’s low is going strong and the 3 large green candles from the low signify bullish momentum.

The expectation with this type of price action is that the trend continues higher, and 6042 now becomes a point of support. While a retest is possible, the momentum is to the upside and the expectation is for this level to hold. 6100 is the next target, followed by 6125.

I want to really zoom into the 1-minute chart for the last 2 trading days to show how significant 6042 really was. We spent most of yesterday rejecting that level, in fact we rejected it 3 times and closed the day lower. You can see the 3 rejections denoted by our first 3 grey circles.

However, today we broke over that level with a lot of upside momentum and a parade of green candles, as highlighted by the grey rectangle. Later in the day, we did try to retest it and almost immediately bounced higher, as highlighted by the final grey circle. We spent the rest of the day rallying and closed at the highs of the day.

On the 30-minute chart, we are trending strongly to the upside on some key momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI as well.

NVDA broke over 123 today, which yesterday I mentioned was the key level to break out of for some bullish momentum. We closed the day at 125.

The expectation for NVDA now is to at least test the upper end of the new grey box, around 130. There are some slight pain points at 126 and 128, but they might not materialize into anything serious. We’ll have to wait and see, but my belief is that the path to 130 is pretty clear now. We could even get there tomorrow or Friday.

Zooming into our AAPL chart, we can see that AAPL was weak today. In fact it was negative all day and closed negative too on a day where SPX and NDX both rallied and broke over key resistance levels.

AAPL is showing signs of clear weakness, unable to even catch a rally on an up day for the broader market. If we get weakness in the market, I expect AAPL to collapse pretty hard. The bearish head and shoulders pattern is still in play, and I will remain bearish until we break above 240.

GOOGL fell into the grey box I spoke about yesterday and spent the entire day in there. There is not much support below here until around 175, so if GOOGL fails to rally we could see a further move down.

It is interesting that some of the market leading tech stocks are showing weakness, yet the SPX and NDX keep rallying. Today we had AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA all in the red while MSFT and META were practically unchanged. NVDA was the only MAG 7 that rallied. If MAG 7 isn’t leading, then can this up move sustain? It’s certainly something to think about.

The market is in a really weird spot right now, and I’ve spoken about that throughout the week in each update. Right now, it’s all about waiting and watching for key levels before taking a trade. While “it could go either way” is pretty true almost always in the market, I feel that it is really emphasized in times like this when the market is at a cross roads.

With the current price action, the expectation is 6100-6125 on SPX. But as we know, one tweet or some economic report could easily shift the momentum to the downside really quickly. The market is in a reactionary period, meaning it reacts to any news or data immediately, often overreacting, and then spends time digesting and processing the news and recovering from the overreaction.

We saw this last week with the deepseek news. We immediately dropped almost 3% during overnight trading and then spent the entire week recovering as people had time to process and understand the news.

And then again this week, the market dropped 2-3% overnight on the news of tariffs, and has now recovered and is positive for the week.

The market is shaky and unstable currently. Is it the sign of a weakening bullmarket? We’ll look at that with more detail this weekend.

Good luck tomorrow!