As I mentioned in the weekly thread, SPX had an outside move from the expected range earlier today. Similar to last Monday, we quickly recovered and spent most of the day grinding higher.

Starting with our usual daily SPX chart, we can see the wick of today’s candle slightly breach the expected move to the downside, by about 13 points. While SPX is still in the lower half of the range, the rally today was quite spectacular considering /ES was down over 130 points overnight.

I want to show a smaller timeframe chart such as the 5-minute to better showcase what happened today. We obviously gapped down very big in the open and almost fully recovered. The SPX was flirting with unchanged during the afternoon, while the Dow actually did end up going green for the session at one point.

While we did start to head back down to close the day, futures right now are certainly not pointing down but that could change pretty quickly overnight.

Moving onto NVDA, we did see it break below the support line I was talking about last week around 115 but that was pretty short lived. I will give NVDA a pass on breaking that support due to it being largely because of the gap down. As we have discussed in other scenarios, large volatility spikes can cause an underlying to slightly overshoot key support and resistance levels. 115 was quickly taken back and was not breached again for the rest of the day.

While this is no means a bullish signal, there is still some strength in NVDA preventing it from completely collapsing. Dip buyers are still stepping in and NVDA continues to be a fan favorite. If we do break below 115 with conviction and a huge dump of volume, look out below! It could get ugly.

The honorable mention yesterday was PLTR and it deserves to be the honorable mention again today. We are currently sitting at a 2 standard deviation move to the upside post-earnings, breaking over 100 in after-hours trading.

This is a pretty significant breach of prior highs, and the momentum seems absolutely strong on this one. I expect the run to continue and people piling on to drive the price even higher. We already talked about a rotation out of things like NVDA and AAPL into META and GOOGL over the weekend, and now we might be adding PLTR to that list.

As for what the market does tomorrow, your guess is as good as mine. We now live in a time where a single tweet can shake the markets 2-3% in either direction. Volatile and uncertain markets like that don’t tend to follow any logic or any technical formula.

While we can still do some analysis on what is happening and use that to give us an idea of what could happen, it’s important to remember that the market is ever changing and waits for no one. Instead of trying to predict what will happen, I try to provide analysis on keys levels, key movements and key indicators to look for.

Going into tomorrow, 6000 on SPX is the first level we want to look at. As of this post, it looks like we will open above that level. The next level is around 6042, which was last weeks close. Breaking above this would put us in the upper half of the expected range, something we failed to do last week.

Should both of those levels break, there really isn’t much stopping us from testing the all-time highs again around 6125-6128. On the downside, breaking below 5960 or even the lowest end of the expected move at 5936 could mean trouble and a further sell off.

This market is all about key price points and momentum, so let’s focus on that instead of trying to predict what a chaotic market will do.

Good luck!