SPX had a little bit of a bounce today, breaking out of the channel we have been tracking and also the 7675 key level to the upside. While we did slightly push past this level, SPX ultimately closed right at it. I don’t think today changes much overall, and I do think that the market is flashing more bearish signs than bullish ones.

Can that change overnight? Sure. But for now, I am sticking with the bearish case.

The daily chart now looks like it has stalled out and is lacking direction. While the candle yesterday did make a new low, if you look at the candles as a cluster – specifically the last 3 candles – we have made almost no progress and continue to mostly trade inside the range set by last Thursday’s down move.

From the daily chart perspective, the current range is 7700 to roughly 7635. A breach of these would likely be needed to possibly ignite the next trend.

We can see the break of this channel but SPX was unable to really cross over the white line, aka positive for the week. For now we are hovering near unchanged for the week, but a break of this channel does give the bulls some more hope.

If the push higher does continue, then 7700 needs to break next. Perhaps NVDA will be the savior.

We might just be in a holding period until NVDA, as that is a very big and important event for the market. Even if we rally, for now my stance on the market looking and feeling bearish stands.

I don’t usually like to predict the market because I try to be as data driven as possible and just trade the market in front of me, but I do have a feeling that there is another push lower coming and we are still in “sell the rip” mode.

If NVDA pumps the market, that could be a shorting opportunity. I think as long as SPX remains under 7750, that is likely the higher probability play. If SPX crosses 7750, then I may have to rethink my approach.

NVDA earnings are tomorrow after the close, and so all eyes will be on that.

Good luck!